Comebacks From Down Two Sets
Next, I looked at the impact of tournament and surface. Here is a table of the frequency of two sets down comebacks by tournament.
Comebacks From Down Two SetsThe comeback from down two sets to none to win in five sets is one of the most unexpected and exciting matches in tennis. Over the past 10 years (2006-2016), there have been a total of 275 of these matches at the ATP World Tour and Davis Cup level. This is just a small fraction (3.81%) of the 7213 best of five set matches in that same time period. I investigated the frequency of these comebacks and some various trends and patterns about them. The following table summarizes the frequency of coming back and winning the match from set scores along the comeback trail. Unsurprisingly, players very rarely win after dropping the first two sets. However, after winning the next set, their chance of winning jumps up to about 25%. This set is only won 22.0% of the time, since most matches end in straight sets. However, once at the set score L-L-W, the 25% chance of completing the comeback is consistent with an approximately 50% chance of winning each set. This would indicate that the players are roughly evenly matched. Finally, once the match reaches the deciding 5th set, the comeback is completed about 56% of the time, which is consistent with the theory that the player who has won the last two sets has the “momentum”. However, this effect is quite small.
Next, I looked at the impact of tournament and surface. Here is a table of the frequency of two sets down comebacks by tournament.
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All Star Weekend Update and PredictionsSkills Challenge The Field DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans CJ McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers Defending Champion: Patrick Beverley, Houston Rockets Dark Horse: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors When talking about Green, basketball analysts constantly reinforce his passion for the game, citing him as the “heart and soul” of the Warriors. Don’t be surprised if he brings that passion to this event and gives it his all going for the W, seeing as that’s all we’ve seen him do thus far in his career. Evan’s prediction: Jordan Clarkson, Los Angeles Lakers One of the few bright spots for the Lakers has been Clarkson, one of the backcourt constituents of last year’s All-NBA 1st Rookie Team. While he doesn’t garner as many headlines as the Kobe’s and DeAngelo’s of Los Angeles, I expect him to thrive in this competition. Grant’s prediction: Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics The Celtics’ Isaiah Thomas has a lot to prove as the small man in the All Star Game. However, in the Skills Challenge he can use this to his advantage. Thomas, a career 6th man, has finally broken out with Boston and has proven his ability to lead the young team. Thomas’ speed will provide him a strong advantage over the field’s big-men, namely DeMarcus Cousins, Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns and with experience in last year’s contest Thomas is poised to take home the trophy. Three Point Contest The Field Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors James Harden, Houston Rockets Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks Kyle Lowry, Toronto Raptors JJ Redick, Los Angeles Clippers Chris Bosh, Miami Heat Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns Defending Champion: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors Dark Horse: Chris Bosh, Miami Heat World Series Push: NL Championship Series Loser
Moving on to the league championships, we continue our series in which we look at how each 2015 playoff team can go about the offseason in order to chase a ring in 2016. For more of an introduction, see the first piece in the series about the Yankees. We will continue here with a team that made great strides in 2015 and has their fans believing that the end of a long drought may be coming soon in the Chicago Cubs. Previous Teams Yankees Pirates Astros Dodgers Rangers Cardinals Done Deals Since so much has already happened in the offseason, I will be looking at the deals each team has already made and giving my input. I will keep the mostly inconsequential ones, but for the most part I will be making my moves as though the offseason has not yet started and all of the free agents are still out there and all the traded players are put back on their original teams. 1. Signed John Lackey to a two-year contract The Cubs needed a veteran pitcher who could eat some innings to replace Dan Haren and Lackey certainly fits that bill. He is 37 years old and as I have mentioned in the past two articles, the Cubs should not count on him sustaining his recent success. On the other hand, they will take 200 innings and an ERA right around 4.00. They have a good enough offense to support a pitcher like that once, maybe even twice, every five days, so Lackey was a nice, cheap option to fill out the back end of their rotation. 2. Signed Ben Zobrist to a four-year contract World Series Push: NL Division Series Loser
We continue our series in which we look at how each 2015 playoff team can go about the offseason in order to chase a ring in 2016. For more of an introduction, see the first piece in the series about the Yankees. We continue here with a team that often finds itself in a good position by the end of September: the St. Louis Cardinals. Previous Teams Yankees Pirates Astros Dodgers Rangers Done Deals Since so much has already happened in the offseason, I will be looking at the deals each team has already made and giving my input. I will keep the mostly inconsequential ones, but for the most part I will be making my moves as though the offseason has not yet started and all of the free agents are still out there and all the traded players are put back on their original teams. 1. Signed Brayan Peña to a two-year contract and traded Tony Cruz to the Kansas City Royals for a minor league infielder We’ll keep this one here as the switch from Cruz to Peña does not mean much. Either one could be viewed as a solid backup catcher, but neither will provide much value, if any, during the course of the season in the 30 or 40 games that they are asked to play. I probably like Peña a little bit better as a player, but there is something to be said for continuity, so this one is pretty much a push for me. |
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